Free Bet Bookmaker’s Prix de l’Arc Preview 2011
What an odd year. Traditionally, Prix de l’Arc punters (like me) have played the percentages, but the last few years have overturned our trends and resulted in one golden rule: back the best horse.
We all knew that Sea the Stars was going to win the Arc, and if it weren’t for that disappointing mid-season run, Workforce would also have been a certainty for everyone. Zarkava was the best filly we’ve seen for decades, and rightly won the race, almost at a canter. Dylan Thomas was equally proof that the Arc has now grown in stature, having won as a 4-year-old, and the race has become the World Championship of flat racing.
So, the old theorem that it is always three-year-olds trained in France, preferably Prix de Niel winners, doesn’t hold as strong as it used to. Indeed, in this Arc, what have we got to go on? A handful of three-year-olds at most, the best of them a filly, and the Niel winner might not like the ground.
The best horse? Sarafina’s good but is no Zarkava, plus she’s a year older – when was the last time a four-year-old filly won the Arc? Urban Sea in 1993 if you’re interested. Before that, 1983, so not such a regular occurrence. She came third last year, which is no embarrassment, but has she improved as a four-year-old? Quite possibly, but such improvements are incremental at best. Not the best favourite we’ve had for the Arc, and that favouritism is indicative of the reduced quality of the field.
Workforce may be losing his shine, but remains a danger. Then again, when was the last time a four-year-old came back to retain the Arc? If you’re interested, 1978 – Alleged ridden by Lester Piggott. It doesn’t happen often, but this is one horse you might back to repeat the feat. History’s against him, though, and the fast ground will hurry others along. Equally, if you thought last year’s win was impressive, it was the slowest since 1991, which tells you more than you need to know about the field.
So You Think would be the first five-year-old since 1988 to win the race (Tony Bin if you’re interested), and only Aiden O’Brien’s second-ever Arc victory. Just like the Derby, O’Brien’s record stinks when it comes to the big races. He’s put six into this race, and while So You Think has impeccable credentials otherwise, history is against him.
The Japanese have brought over two horses – Hiruno d’Amour and Nakayama Festa – and those of you who remember the year Rail Link won may remember the massive gamble that went on another Japanese Horse. The PMU were quoting 1.1 such was the punt from the enormous contingent at Longchamp that day (I remember the squeeze on the concourse). It didn’t happen that year, nor has it ever happened, and it won’t happen this year.
Of course, this may mean that Longchamp is pumped full of Japanese race-goers and the PMU odds will be grossly skewed as a result – keep an eye on them, preferably through ZeTurf (100 euros of free bets, too), and you may find better value for the horse you like.
People are putting money on Snow Fairy, but that only goes to show how dumb some people can be when it comes to picking horses. Frankie Dettori taking the ride is no indication of quality – he’s just desperate for a ride. If a four-year-old is going to win the Arc, it has to be a top-drawer four-year-old, preferably with some experience of Longchamp and its long, long straight. Having Dettori in the saddle doesn’t change a thing.
So – make what you will of the following – it’s a wide-open race, as befits the best race in the horse racing calendar – but we have an inkling that in the absence of a real star, a three-year-old might win the Arc this year. After all, despite the recent overhaul of our trends, 7 of the last 8 winners have been three-year-olds. That’s an impressive strike rate. What have we got?
Reliable Man is our yardstick – he won the Prix Niel, and found the ground a little too hard in the Grand Prix de Paris. That’s what scares us – because otherwise he fits the profile rather too well. That one defeat is an indicator that the fast pace of this Arc (and it’s probably not going to rain) will do for him. The Niel was good to soft – the Arc could even be good to firm. While he cannot be discounted, he may actually not even race, so watch the weather.
Galikova won the Prix Vermeille (an Arc trial) and is currently single figures with most bookmakers. While all eyes are on a four-year-old filly, it could be a three-year-old filly who shines through. Out of the brilliant Galileo and half-sister to Goldikova, she has perhaps the most solid claims of all the three-year-olds and has clearly been on a collision course with the Arc since the start of the season. It’s a long season, remember, and preparation counts as much as any factor.
If Meandre goes, then he’d be my pick. Right age, course & distance victory, French-trained – and that C&D win in the Grand Prix de Paris was the yardstick by which we should measure this particular Arc. Decent pace, and similar ground. He’s another who appears to have been prepared just for the Arc – and given the ground, he should be able to reverse the Prix Niel in which he finished behind Reliable Man. Indeed, he didn’t even seem that pressed on trials day on the good-to-soft, so that result has its compensating factors. Equally, he’s trained in France by a man whose Arc credentials are as good as anyone’s – Andre Fabre. British bookies will be hands-off so your best odds may be here in the UK.
That’s not to say that Meandre – or Galikova – are champion horses, but this isn’t a quality Arc, it’s a competitive one, and in that case, we’re falling back on our percentages. Those percentages may have been eroded by money and the subsequent raising of the stakes, but this race will be fast and tough, so will suit the fresher, better prepared horses.
FBB says: Meandre from Galikova, Workforce & Sarafina.
published: 28th September 2011 by Free Bet Bookmaker
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